Friday, April 5, 2013

The year of Great Divide - Population of India

    In general, impact of economic growth in an economy on the population will show following behavior,

1. High rate of birth and High rate of deaths - Low population growth (under-developed)
2. High rate of birth and Low rate of deaths - High population growth (developing)
3. Low rate of birth and Low rate of deaths - Low population growth (developed)

    In a country like India, where the children are considered as assets, rate of birth tend to be high. But at the same time, due to low economic growth health services will be lower. So that there will be high death rates also.

    In due course of time, after achieving certain level of economic growth, the health services would be accessible to people. So, that the country will show high rate of births and low rate of deaths.

    After achieving good level of economic growth and better literacy rate, people tend to have less children. So, there will be low rate of births and low rate of deaths.

    The year 1921 is a "year of the great divide" in the demographic history of India when mortality started to decline leading to acceleration in the rate of population growth . During the next three decades (1921-51) the rate of population growth continued at a level of over one per cent per annum. The slight dip in the growth rate in 1941-51 partly reflects the Bengal famine of 1942-43 and dislocation,-, due to the partition of India in 1947. After independence the rate of population growth accelerated considerably because of extension of public health services. The growth rate was at its peak in the period 1961-81 with the popu lation growing at a rate of 2.2 per cent per annum. The decade 1971-81 is a turning point in that fertility started declining and continued to decline every year thereafter. during the decade 1981-91 the rate of population growth declined from 2.2 per cent per annum to 2.1 per cent. Though the decline is a welcome sign the pace of decline is not enough to ease the relent less pressure on social services. The population has crossed the one billion mark in 2001. There are sharp regional variations. Another feature of the growth of population in India is the absolute size of its increase in the decade of 1981-91 India added 163 million people: an incremental population almost equal to the population of Indonesia, the fifth most populous country of the world. India adds every year a population almost equal to that of Australia. Given a population increase of this magnitude it would be difficult to provide even rudimentary social services despite best efforts


    The observation from the above graph shows that the population in India started steadily increasing from 1921. And continued to increase, that is the sign of India entering into the second stage of population growth. It is long way for India for stepping into the third phase of population growth, i.e., low growth. Despite India's economic growth, population is keep on increasing. 

Census 2011
    As per the 2011 census, there are 181 million people (~Brazil's total population) added to Indian population. There is another noteworthy point, i.e., after 1911-1921, 2001-11 is the first decade that has added lesser population than previous decades. If this behavior continues, then India will enter into the third phase within few more decades.

No comments:

Post a Comment